The NFL draft breeds player movement. And not just in terms of rookie picks.
Player personnel executives around the league are currently tweaking rosters to be as least position-needy as possible entering the draft. That way, clubs set themselves up to select the "best players available." By May 1, rosters must be readied for the heart of OTA season.
Veteran player trades were disallowed leading up to and during last year's lockout-affected draft, but in 2010 we saw a whopping 18 trades in the month of April. 24 vets were involved, including Donovan McNabb, Brandon Marshall, Santonio Holmes, Leon Washington, Ted Ginn, Tony Scheffler, and Jason Campbell.
April is the most trade-happy month on the NFL calendar.
Here's an in-depth look at ten pre-draft trade candidates, with some more listed at the end.
1. Bears running back Matt Forte
Forte has done his best to make the organization look bad in repeated ESPN appearances, complaining about his contract status. He was particularly displeased with the Bears' signing of Michael Bush, even though shared rushing attempts could actually work to prolong Forte's career.
Forte is a good back. New GM Phil Emery knows it, or else he wouldn't have slapped Forte with the franchise tag. But the Bears now have a starting-caliber replacement, and can find another on day two of the draft. On the trade market, Forte could fetch a second-round pick and then some.
Prediction: Traded to New England for second- and sixth-round picks.
2. Eagles cornerback Asante Samuel
Samuel is still playing at a very high level, but he no longer fits the Eagles' defensive philosophy. He'll also be difficult to trade going on age 31 with a $9.9 million base salary. In all likelihood, Samuel will have to agree to a reworked contract in order to expedite his way out of Philadelphia.
The Lions nearly traded for Samuel late last summer, offering two second-day draft picks in a deal Eagles GM Howie Roseman nixed at the last minute. Detroit is in no better shape at corner than it was at this time last year. It's pretty safe to assume the sides will rekindle talks before the draft.
Prediction: Traded to Detroit for a conditional fourth-round pick.
3. Colts defensive end Dwight Freeney
Freeney has been unwilling to move from end to outside linebacker in new coach Chuck Pagano's 3-4 scheme. The Colts figured that out early, and began "fielding calls" in February to gauge interest around the league. Due to Freeney's age (32) and exorbitant salary ($14M), they found no takers.
GM Ryan Grigson was adamant at this week's Owners Meetings that Freeney is now part of the team's 2012 plans. "He's a Colt. Period," Grigson said. That could change quickly, of course, if a team believes it's one pass rusher away from a Super Bowl. Like Samuel, Freeney would have to redo his deal in order to make a trade work. The Colts do have plenty of cap space to keep him.
Prediction: Stays with Indianapolis.
4. Panthers running back Jonathan Stewart
Carolina's combined $52 million investments in DeAngelo Williams and Mike Tolbert don't make Stewart the odd man out, per se, but they certainly raise the question of whether Stewart will be a Panther beyond 2013. (He may not make it that long.) Stewart's rookie contract is up after this season, and Carolina isn't going to be able to keep paying all three backs. With Stewart coming off an impressive year (career-high 5.36 YPC, 47 catches) it's time to strike while the iron is hot.
Though he's in a contract season, an acquiring team won't have to commit top dollar to Stewart because it can slap him with the franchise tag in 2013. Based on 2012 tender numbers, a team could get Stewart's age-25 and 26 seasons for what essentially amounts to a two-year, $9.053 million commitment. As a premium talent, Stewart is well worth that money in a keep-and-tag scenario.
Prediction: Traded to Denver for a second-round pick.
The NFL draft breeds player movement. And not just in terms of rookie picks.
Player personnel executives around the league are currently tweaking rosters to be as least position-needy as possible entering the draft. That way, clubs set themselves up to select the "best players available." By May 1, rosters must be readied for the heart of OTA season.
Veteran player trades were disallowed leading up to and during last year's lockout-affected draft, but in 2010 we saw a whopping 18 trades in the month of April. 24 vets were involved, including Donovan McNabb, Brandon Marshall, Santonio Holmes, Leon Washington, Ted Ginn, Tony Scheffler, and Jason Campbell.
April is the most trade-happy month on the NFL calendar.
Here's an in-depth look at ten pre-draft trade candidates, with some more listed at the end.
1. Bears running back Matt Forte
Forte has done his best to make the organization look bad in repeated ESPN appearances, complaining about his contract status. He was particularly displeased with the Bears' signing of Michael Bush, even though shared rushing attempts could actually work to prolong Forte's career.
Forte is a good back. New GM Phil Emery knows it, or else he wouldn't have slapped Forte with the franchise tag. But the Bears now have a starting-caliber replacement, and can find another on day two of the draft. On the trade market, Forte could fetch a second-round pick and then some.
Prediction: Traded to New England for second- and sixth-round picks.
2. Eagles cornerback Asante Samuel
Samuel is still playing at a very high level, but he no longer fits the Eagles' defensive philosophy. He'll also be difficult to trade going on age 31 with a $9.9 million base salary. In all likelihood, Samuel will have to agree to a reworked contract in order to expedite his way out of Philadelphia.
The Lions nearly traded for Samuel late last summer, offering two second-day draft picks in a deal Eagles GM Howie Roseman nixed at the last minute. Detroit is in no better shape at corner than it was at this time last year. It's pretty safe to assume the sides will rekindle talks before the draft.
Prediction: Traded to Detroit for a conditional fourth-round pick.
3. Colts defensive end Dwight Freeney
Freeney has been unwilling to move from end to outside linebacker in new coach Chuck Pagano's 3-4 scheme. The Colts figured that out early, and began "fielding calls" in February to gauge interest around the league. Due to Freeney's age (32) and exorbitant salary ($14M), they found no takers.
GM Ryan Grigson was adamant at this week's Owners Meetings that Freeney is now part of the team's 2012 plans. "He's a Colt. Period," Grigson said. That could change quickly, of course, if a team believes it's one pass rusher away from a Super Bowl. Like Samuel, Freeney would have to redo his deal in order to make a trade work. The Colts do have plenty of cap space to keep him.
Prediction: Stays with Indianapolis.
4. Panthers running back Jonathan Stewart
Carolina's combined $52 million investments in DeAngelo Williams and Mike Tolbert don't make Stewart the odd man out, per se, but they certainly raise the question of whether Stewart will be a Panther beyond 2013. (He may not make it that long.) Stewart's rookie contract is up after this season, and Carolina isn't going to be able to keep paying all three backs. With Stewart coming off an impressive year (career-high 5.36 YPC, 47 catches) it's time to strike while the iron is hot.
Though he's in a contract season, an acquiring team won't have to commit top dollar to Stewart because it can slap him with the franchise tag in 2013. Based on 2012 tender numbers, a team could get Stewart's age-25 and 26 seasons for what essentially amounts to a two-year, $9.053 million commitment. As a premium talent, Stewart is well worth that money in a keep-and-tag scenario.
Prediction: Traded to Denver for a second-round pick.
5. Titans quarterback Matt Hasselbeck
The Titans know they can do better than the fading Hasselbeck, who in the latter stages of 2011 more closely resembled a late-career Mark Brunell than his three-time Pro Bowl old self. Tennessee swung and missed on Peyton Manning, but the organization clearly wants more at quarterback.
If the Titans are smart, they'll know 2011 first-round pick Jake Locker is ready to start and will run circles around Hasselbeck in training camp. The club remains high on Rusty Smith as a potential long-term backup. Clearing Hasselbeck's $5.5 million salary off the books wouldn't hurt, either. A phone call to old Hasselbeck pal Mike Holmgren in Cleveland may be all it takes to turn the page.
Prediction: Traded to Cleveland for a fifth-round pick.
6. Bengals linebacker Keith Rivers
The ninth pick in the 2008 draft, Rivers has been a testament to the increasingly popular notion that non-rush linebackers shouldn't be drafted so high. Rivers is a fine run defender, but he hasn't come close to living up to his draft status. He also missed all of last season with a wrist condition.
The medical will be key because Rivers recovered far more slowly than anticipated, and the wrist injury has been called "degenerative." Rivers is in a contract season, however, and the Bengals probably won't be signing him long term. He's not even projected for the starting lineup this year.
UPDATE: Rivers has been traded to the Giants for a fifth-round pick.
7. Patriots quarterbacks Brian Hoyer and Ryan Mallett
Hoyer lacks arm strength, and Mallett is short on mobility. At ages 26 and 24, however, they are tantalizing young prospects after learning under Tom Brady. Neither has a particularly prohibitive base salary. Hoyer draws high marks for intangible traits, and Mallett can sling it a country mile.
Teams likely still view Hoyer's talent as unremarkable, and will wait until he hits the 2013 market before overspending. Mallett is the more intriguing trade target, though the Patriots probably won't part with him for less than a second-round pick after Mallett cost them a third-rounder in 2011.
Prediction: Both stay in New England.
8. Texans running back Ben Tate
Tate is a logical trade candidate in that the player ahead of him on the depth chart just re-signed for $43 million over five seasons, and Houston's zone-blocking scheme can render running back a replaceable position. Tate is a beastly tackle breaker with underrated skills in the passing game. He's cheap and not yet 24, and those characteristics make Tate very enticing on the trade market.
They may bite if an unrefusable offer comes along, but the Texans' best option is to keep Tate for one more season. He's low-cost, starter-quality talent in one of the NFL's run-heaviest offenses. The club should be more amenable to trade offers next offseason, when Tate enters a contract year.
Prediction: Stays in Houston.
9. Jets linebacker Bart Scott
New York Newsday reported in early January that Scott would not be back with the Jets, and the team granted him permission to seek a trade just before February's Scouting Combine. It's not difficult to see why they've found no takers, however. Scott is a two-down inside linebacker going on age 32. His $4.2 million salary is both hefty and fully guaranteed for the 2012 season.
Coach Rex Ryan now claims the Jets plan to keep Scott, but that could be an issue either of Ryan lacking foresight, or a leverage play by the organization. Teams will have interest in Scott if he's released. They just aren't going to take on his contract. The Jets have a tough decision ahead.
Prediction: Released after the draft.
10. Bills cornerback Leodis McKelvin
McKelvin was the 11th pick in the 2008 draft, so he's a holdover from an old Bills regime. And McKelvin hasn't played remotely well enough to earn a spot in GM Buddy Nix and coach Chan Gailey's long-term plans. McKelvin is entering the final year on his rookie deal. He's not getting an extension and won't be a 2012 starter, so it makes the most sense for Buffalo to move him now.
McKelvin still has talent and youth (26) on his side. Dick Jauron was Bills coach when McKelvin was drafted, and now runs the defense in Cleveland. A move like this could make the Browns more comfortable bypassing Morris Claiborne in favor of offense at the No. 4 pick. The Browns have 13 draft choices after compensatory picks were distributed, so they'll be open to wheeling and dealing. McKelvin is a right corner by nature, and a logical fit opposite LCB Joe Haden.
Prediction: Traded to Cleveland for a sixth-round pick.
More Trade Candidates: Giants DE Osi Umenyiora, Bucs TE Kellen Winslow, Chiefs DL Glenn Dorsey, Rams WR Danny Amendola, Raiders WR Louis Murphy, Broncos RB Knowshon Moreno, Eagles DE Darryl Tapp, Lions DT Sammie Lee Hill, Panthers QB Jimmy Clausen, Saints RB Chris Ivory, Dolphins DE Phillip Merling, Browns WR Mohamed Massaquoi, Colts DE Jerry Hughes, Lions CB Alphonso Smith, Panthers RB Mike Goodson, Titans LB Gerald McRath, Dolphins LB Koa Misi, Patriots DT Ron Brace, Jets RT Wayne Hunter, Bengals DE Robert Geathers, Bucs WR Arrelious Benn, Texans SS Glover Quin, Seahawks WR Deon Butler.
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